Heat

May 27, 2023

The NBA Finals begin Thursday night with the Miami Heat (44-38) visiting the Denver Nuggets (53-29). Game 1 tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET. The eight-seeded Heat represent the Eastern Conference, while the top-seeded Nuggets represent the West. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Heat-Nuggets Game 1 prediction, pick, and how to watch.

Here are the Heat-Nuggets NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel

Miami Heat: +9 (-110)

Denver Nuggets: -9 (-110)

Over: 219.5 (-108)

Under: 219.5 (-112)

TV: ABC, ESPN, ESPN Deportes

Stream: ESPN+

Time: ET/PT

*See how to watch Heat-Nuggets LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial, 15% off your first month)*

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Miami has been the single-biggest story of the postseason. With their Game 7 win against the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Heat not only became just the second No. 8 seed to make the Finals but they avoided becoming the first team to blow a 3-0 lead in playoff history. Miami completely flipped the script this postseason – going 12-5 against the spread after they had the worst cover rate in the regular season. That said, if they want to cover in Game 1 they're going to need more of what got them here: defense, three-point shooting, and star play.

Miami featured a strong defense all season long as they ranked second in points allowed. While their points allowed are up slightly, they've still allowed just 107.4 PPG thus far. They've been especially stingy when defending the three – allowing just 12.3 made threes per game at a 32.5% clip. On the flip side, Miami has shot the three incredibly well themselves. Their 39% clip is the highest of any team in the postseason, while their 13.1 threes per game rank fifth. With four players averaging at least 2.1 threes per game, the Heat spread the floor and consistently put pressure on the opposing defense.

Perhaps the single-biggest reason Miami is here in the first place is Jimmy Butler. The six-time All-Star has taken his game up a level this postseason – averaging 28.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and 5.7 APG. While fatigue looked to slow him down towards the end of the Eastern Conference Finals, Butler's playoff track record makes him incredibly difficult to bet against.

Looking at some of the trends, the Heat look to have a strong chance to cover given the large spread. Over the last 32 years, 7-9 point underdogs in the NBA Finals hold a strong 18-9-1 record against the spread. This pairs nicely with Denver's recent struggles covering large spreads. Over their last 12 games, the Nuggets are just 4-8 against the spread when favorited by more than seven points.

Despite entering the playoffs as the Western Conference's No. 1 seed, the Nuggets making the Finals was something of an upset. They entered with the sixth-best odds to win it all despite cruising through the regular season. Denver has faced little opposition thus far and is the overwhelming favorite to win both the series and Game 1. While the Heat pose a tough matchup, Nikola Jokic hasn't lost against them over the last three seasons – compiling a 6-0 record.

Angelo Guinhawa · 1 hour ago

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While the Nuggets have a multitude of options to rely on, they will go where Nikola Jokic and Jamaal Murray take them. Both have been incredible this postseason – with Jokic leading the way with 29.9 PPG, 13.3 RPG, and 10.3 APG. The two-time MVP currently holds -340 odds to win Finals MVP – the biggest favorite in the past 20 years. His partner in crime, Murray, has been their biggest X-factor, however, and will play a major role in any potential cover in Game 1. He quickly erased any post-injury concerns and has averaged 27.7 PPG and 6.1 APG while shooting a blistering 40% from deep.

If you're looking to bet on Finals' trends, home teams are 21-11 against the speed and 25-7 straight up in Game 1 over the last 32 years. Since 2013, home favorites of 4.5 or more points in the Finals are 21-6 straight up and 18-8-1 against the spread.

The public money will likely come in heavily for the Heat given the large spread and casual sentiment for the underdog. However, we can't ignore the significant rest difference these teams have. Denver will have nine days of rest in between their games… compared to Miami's two days of rest. The Heat historically will face an uphill battle given that teams coming off a Game 7 into a Game 1 are 33-53 (38%) all-time. Additionally, teams with a 5+ day rest advantage in their first home game are 8-1 all-time – with the lone loss coming at the hands of Michael Jordan.

While trends aren't the end-all, be-all, the Nuggets are also just a better team than the Heat and haven't had any trouble with them in the Jokic era. Consequently, I'm all over the Nuggets in Game 1 despite the intimidating spread.

Final Heat-Nuggets Prediction & Pick: Denver Nuggets -9 (-110)