Mariners

Jul 20, 2023

The Seattle Mariners (21-21) visit the Boston Red Sox (23-20) for the rubber match of their three-game series. First pitch commences at 7:10 p.m. ET. Boston evened the series 1-1 thanks to their 9-4 win last night. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Mariners-Red Sox prediction, pick, and how to watch.

Here are the Mariners-Red Sox MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-176)

Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+146)

Over: 9.5 (+100)

Under: 9.5 (-122)

TV: Root Sports, NESN, MLB Network

Stream: MLB.tv

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET/ 4:10 p.m. PT

*See how to watch Mariners-Red Sox LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Last 10: 6-4 (Fourth in the AL West)

🚨 Get viral MLB graphics, memes, rumors and trending news delivered right to your inbox with the Clutch Newsletter.

Run Line Record: 22-20 (52%)

Over Record: 20-21-1 (49%)

Seattle started the season slowly but has since hovered around .500 for over a month now. Entering this series in Boston, the Mariners dropped 2/3 to the Rangers but bounced back with a series win against the Tigers. That said, the Mariners have largely been a disappointment relative to their preseason expectations. Their biggest issues lie on the offensive end where the Mariners rank 14th in runs but just 22nd in total bases. They rank 26th in OPS and hold the worst strikeout rate in the league. Seattle has been carried by their stellar pitching as they rank fourth in ERA and third in WHIP. Consequently, the Mariners need their bats to show up tonight if they want to cover as road underdogs.

Lefty Marco Gonzales (3-0) makes his eighth start of the season for the Mariners tonight. Gonzales has cemented himself as an elite innings-eater over the years with 25+ starts and 140+ innings pitched in each of the last four full seasons. He looks the part this season as well having already compiled seven starts to go along with his 4.42 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Although Gonzales doesn't strike many hitters out, he is coming off back-to-back quality starts in wins against the Tigers and Astros. That said, he struggled in his lone star against the Red Sox last season – giving up two runs and walking six in just 4.1 innings. However, the Mariners won each of his last four starts – giving them a strong chance of covering as underdogs tonight.

Last 10: 4-6 (Fifth in the AL East)

Run Line Record: 23-20 (54%)

Rexwell Villas · 56 minutes ago

Chris Spiering · 10 hours ago

Cameron Zunkel · 13 hours ago

Over Record: 28-13-2 (68%)

Despite sitting in last place in their division, the Red Sox have been one of the surprise teams in the American League. While they suffer from playing in the best division in baseball, Boston very much has the chops of a playoff contender. That said, they've cooled off dramatically over the last two weeks with just two wins in their last eight games. That said, Boston remains a formidable opponent thanks to their elite offense. The Red Sox rank third in runs, second in on-base percentage, and fifth in isolated power. Although the Mariners boast one of the best pitching staffs in the league, Boston's offense certainly gives them a strong chance to cover tonight despite being 1.5-run favorites.

24-year-old Brayan Bello (2-1) makes his sixth start of the season for the Red Sox tonight. Bello was up and down last year with a 4.71 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. While his ERA hasn't improved this season (up to 5.01) his control looks much sharper. Bello's improved his WHIP to 1.59 and his K:BB from 2.0 to 3.4. Additionally, Bello's numbers are badly inflated thanks to a poor season debut. Since allowing five runs in 2.2 innings to the Angels last month, Bello has been rock-solid with a 2-0 record and a 3.48 ERA. The team won each of his last four starts including impressive Ws against the Braves and Blue Jays. Consequently, Bello makes could surprise Red Sox backers and gives Boston a strong chance of covering despite being 1.5-run favorites.

Boston features a number of strong bats in their lineup but no one has been hotter than Masataka Yoshida. The Japanese superstar seamlessly translated his game to the United States as he ranks second on the team with a .301 average while cranking out six home runs. He's been even better in the month of May with a .347 average over his last 12 games. Coupled with third baseman Rafael Devers (11 home runs, 38 RBI) and Alex Verdugo (.303 average, 81 total bases) and the Red Sox feature plenty of offense.

Expect a highly competitive series finale with neither team throwing one of their top starts. As a result, I like the over here tonight in what should be a windy Game 3 at Fenway Park.

Final Mariners-Red Sox Prediction & Pick: Over 9.5 (+100)