Guardians

Jul 23, 2023

Friday is finally here! With only a couple more weeks to go before the calendar turns to June, the Cleveland Guardians travel to the Big Apple to take on the New York Mets. Join us for our MLB odds series where our Guardians-Mets prediction and pick will be revealed.

Entering play three games south of the .500 mark, the Cleveland Guardians were at least able to get back in the win column with a 3-1 victory in the south side of Chicago over the White Sox. However, the Guardians only sit 3.5 games back of first place in the AL Central with a whole lot of season left to be played. Getting the starting nod in this one for Cleveland will be RHP Cal Quantrill and his evenly 2-2 record to go along with his 3.97 ERA in eight games started.

Similarly enough, the New York Mets are also in a very common predicament as they have limped their way to a 22-23 record. A year ago, it was the Mets that stormed their way to a 101-win season and bafflingly enough finished the campaign with a Wild Card berth. While the Mets are off to a slower start than expected, they have won back-to-back games and appear to be trending in the positive direction. In line for the start will be the righty in Carlos Carrasco who has started miserably with an 0-2 record and an 8.56b ERA to boot.

Here are the Guardians-Mets MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-160)

New York Mets: -1.5 (+132)

Over: 8.5 (-118)

Under: 8.5 (-104)

TV: Bally Sports Great Lakes/SportsNet New York

Stream: MLB.TV

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Time: 7:10 ET/4:10 PT

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Above all else, the most important thing to keep in mind if you are planning on wagering upon the Guardians to cover the spread is to know that this pitching staff will most likely need to do most of the damage if they want to end up on top. On paper, Cleveland possesses one of the worst statistical offenses that the MLB has to offer and hasn't scored more than five runs in their prior four games.

Although Cleveland certainly has some big names in the lineup, however, in order to cover the spread, the one individual that will need to brute the force of this pressure will hands down be Cal Quantrill. In fact, Quantrill has dialed up three consecutive quality starts and doesn't look to be slowing down anytime soon. In his all-time career versus the Mets, Quantrill has squared off with New York only one time when he didn't receive a decision throughout 4 1/3 innings by giving up two runs on seven hits back in 2019. Without a doubt, Quantrill holds the key to the treasure if he starts off the game in a rhythm, then the Guardians should be in pretty good shape even with a lousy offensive attack.

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As for the Mets, New York strives on the long ball but has yet to replicate the same type of success offensively like they endured a season ago. Even more disappointing, the Mets' pitching numbers have taken a swan dive into the bottom half of the league including surrendering 29 runs in their past four games combined. Nevertheless, the veteran in Carlos Carrasco is quite familiar with Cleveland over the years as he spent his first 12 seasons with the then-Indians.

Despite most of those names that Carrasco played with no longer on that roster in Cleveland, there is no doubt that the 36-year-old veteran hurler would love to exact revenge upon his former team in the twilight of his career. Alas, Carrasco is coming off a nagging elbow injury, and pitching deep into this game may not be an option, so be on the lookout for the Mets' bullpen to pick up the slack if worst comes to worst.

All in all, the most important aspect for New York's chances to cover the spread will be to receive production from guys not named Pete Alonso. Believe it or not, but don't be shocked if Jeff McNeil puts together another stellar outing at the plate. With a pair of hits versus the Rays in the Mets' 3-2 victory, New York certainly needs more traffic on the base paths versus Quantrill so the power hitters like Alonso can really inflict their damage. Clearly, stringing together hits and remaining consistent with the bats will need to occur for the Mets to cover the spread.

In this Friday night tilt between two interleague foes, it will be the Mets that protect their home-field advantage by covering the spread.

Final Guardians-Mets Prediction & Pick: Mets -1.5 (+132)