NL Central Trade Rumors: Burnes, Flaherty, Bednar, India

Jul 23, 2023

In case you missed it earlier in the week, Jeff Passan had the first legitimate Trade Deadline Preview of the 2023 MLB season, and it was loaded with juicy information. Brett already covered the Cubs-specific rumors if you’re looking for that. But I was struck by the unexpectedly large volume of NL Central trade rumors, more generally.

Mind you, this article wasn't a rundown of each team in the league or a division-by-division check-in. So the NL Central stuff really stood out. So let's break that stuff down. And be sure to check out Passan's full piece at ESPN, because there is WAY more in there than what we’ll cover below.

The Milwaukee Brewers may have led this division for most of the year, but their lead remains shockingly small. They’re also just barely over .500 and have an extremely negative run differential. Point there being, Milwaukee is not some behemoth barreling towards October baseball.

And so Passan teases the possibility of a … Corbin Burnes trade. Yup. To be quite clear, his sources believe an offseason deal for Burnes is more likely than a deadline deal, but adds that "the Brewers have shown they are willing to make value plays even when they’re uncomfortable and unpopular. And if there's no Cease-and-Anderson or Bieber-and-Rosario deals to be had, a Burnes-and-Willy Adames package would be plenty tempting."

That is surprising, even in the face of what the Brewers did last year (heck, BECAUSE of what the Brewers did last year). Burnes isn't having his typically dominant season, but he's still Corbin Burnes. And the Brewers are still the odds on favorite for the division. Trading him would be a lot crazier than trading Josh Hader at the deadline last year, which was quite crazy and did not go over well for the Brewers.

Burnes is making $10.8M this season and has one more year of control via arbitration (2024). If healthy, he’d be VERY highly sought-after at the deadline. But I doubt he goes anywhere until the winter.

Random note: Remember, Burnes was not particularly thrilled with the Brewers after their arbitration battle this offseason.

Although the Cardinals have bounced back up into mediocrity, they have yet to overcome the huge hole they dug for themselves at the start of the season. And so it's not actually surprising to see them bandied about as potential sellers, too (even though they, themselves, say they don't see it as plausible).

According to Passan, their glut of outfielders would be the most likely position group to feel the pain of trade season when the time comes:

The Cardinals have used nine outfielders this season, and while Tyler O’Neill is the one St. Louis has suggested it's willing to trade, Lars Nootbaar would bring the greatest return. (Jordan Walker isn't going anywhere, executives said, but they believe the Cardinals will at least listen on Dylan Carlson, Alec Burleson and even Tommy Edman.)

HOWEVER, that's not all. Half of the "front office officials" believe Jack Flaherty could be on the move, and even Jordan Montgomery or … gasp! Paul Goldschmidt (but only if things really bottom out). Though Goldschmidt does have a full no-trade clause. In any case, it seems they are very seriously considered to be possible sellers if they don't turn the ship around quickly.

On the flip side is the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team that should be a lot worse than they are, who "could add" at the deadline if things continue on in their current trajectory (sure, Jan…). Muddying the waters, however, is closer David Bednar, who's about to get "very expensive" in arbitration and is near his peak value.

But would the Pirates really trade the Pittsburgh native when they’re still in contention?

The answer is yes, they would. They probably shouldn't, but they absolutely, positively would be willing. They traded Andrew McCutchen when he was only 30. They’ll trade anybody.

In any case, Bednar, 28, has a 1.29 ERA and 10 saves already this season. Oh, and he's striking out 35.4% of batters while walking just 1.3%! That is … boy am I jealous.

Bednar will be just first-time arbitration eligible next season, so I really think the Pirates would be wise to hold onto him at least through the year. But they’re nuts, and cheap, so who knows.

Passan also thinks the Pirates could look to move Carlos Santana and Rich Hill.

Continuing the wildness throughout the division, Passan notes how hot the Reds have been lately. And how, in conjunction with some good young player performances (Matt McLain) and imminent promotions (Elly da la Cruz, #4 prospect in MLB), they’re "feeling themselves with good reason." However, those two players in particular might push 2021 NL Rookie of the Year winner, Jonathan India, out the door via trade. Passan's sources told him that the Reds are in no hurry to move him, but "teams are inquiring" already.

They might have a really interesting deadline. Maybe a good old fashioned baseball trade is in their future, as they pivot "toward a very intriguing and exciting future."

***

Those are the items that caught my eye that I thought might interest you, too. The NL Central is just such a mess and it's all very difficult to play out.

The Brewers are winning enough, but still might sell.

The Pirates are better than they’ve been in a while, but still might sell.

The Cardinals are a lot worse than they should be, but still might sell.

The Reds are hot and about to promote some players, but might have a buy-sell hybrid type of deadline.

And then there are the Chicago Cubs, with plenty of talent and solid individual performances, but absolutely NO clutch hitting and a bullpen that just isn't working out. Where do they go from here? Who knows, but they also have some pieces that could be made available.

The question, then, is what happens when all five times in one division tease a trade deadline sale? Who comes out on top? Will anyone have the guts to go for it, even against the wind? If all are selling, then at least one should definitely NOT be selling. Just very strange stuff.

Michael Cerami covers the Chicago Cubs, Bears, and Bulls at Bleacher Nation. You can find him on Twitter @Michael_Cerami